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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke with numerous bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very reputable player."
Even though highly regarded money has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat higher bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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