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The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped key oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic surge on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding new reserves have the possible to toss governments' long-lasting planning into turmoil.

Whatever the reality, rising long term international needs appear specific to outstrip production in the next decade, particularly given the high and rising costs of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, ingredients and such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing costs drive this innovation to the leading edge, among the richest potential production areas has been totally overlooked by financiers already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to end up being a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising manufacturer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and reasonably little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have largely inhibited their ability to money in on rising worldwide energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their heightened requirement to create winter season electricity has led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a major manufacturer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, given the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower extent Astana for those durable investors prepared to bank on the future, especially as a plant native to the region has currently shown itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American business currently examining how to produce it in commercial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian provider to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina's functional performance capability and possible business practicality.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil material low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A load (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it a particularly great animals feed prospect that is just now gaining acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be a perfect low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: historical evidence indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least three centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a vast array of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can develop problems in germination to attain an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's capacity could permit Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's efforts at agrarian reform since accomplishing self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had ended up being self-sufficient in cotton